Gauteng population growth boosts housing demand

While the latest wave of semigration has seen a net influx of new residents – and homebuyers – to the Western Cape in recent years, it is Gauteng that is experiencing by far the largest growth in population.

Says Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of the Pam Golding Property group: “Despite the market focus on ongoing semigration to the Western Cape, the latest StatsSA data reveals that Gauteng is experiencing by far the strongest growth in population and, as a consequence, housing demand.

“According to StatsSA’s recently released 2025 Mid-Year Population Estimates, South Africa’s total population has risen to 63.1 million people – a growing percentage of whom live in Gauteng (25.4% in 2025) and the Western Cape (12%).

Source: StatsSA

“Further to this, between 2021 and 2026, StatsSA estimates that Gauteng will experience net migration of over 786 000 people to the province, which is more than double the almost 319 000 estimated to be relocating to the Western Cape during the same period.

“This raises the impact this will have on Gauteng’s housing market, as during the past decade, this province has completed just under 151 000 new homes, which is only 25% more than were built in the Western Cape during the same period.

“Of note is the fact that in recent years, the Western Cape has begun to pass more residential building plans than Gauteng, which suggests that future building activity in the latter is set to fall even further behind its growing population.”

Placing into perspective the influx of new residents or semigrants to Gauteng – mainly motivated by economic factors, Dr Golding points out that according to the Gauteng City Region Observatory (Oct 2024) 36% of the province’s adult residents were born elsewhere in South Africa, with the largest share from Limpopo, followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape.

Looking to the residential housing market, the latest Pam Golding Residential Property Index shows that the recovery in national house price inflation (HPI) continues to gather momentum, rising to +4.4% in July 2025, with real (inflation-adjusted) HPI easing to +0.9% in the same month, which is the sixth consecutive month of real growth.

The Index also reveals that the upper price band above R3 million is registering the most robust growth at +6.2% in July, followed by the R2 million – R3 million price band at +6%, while prices below R1 million rose by +3.4% last month.

Says Dr Golding: “The Western Cape continues to outperform other regional housing markets, with growth in house prices rising to +7.2% above year-earlier levels in July, while both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal continue to rebound, with KZN (+3.2%) now slightly ahead of Gauteng (+2.5%).

“Notably, investment demand in the Western Cape remains robust, accounting for 31.1% of all ooba Home Loans applications received in July.

Source: Pam Golding Residential Property Index

“Also of interest is that the recovery in coastal house prices continued to outpace the rebound in non-coastal HPI in July, with prices rising by +6.7% and +4.5% respectively. As a result, the coastal price premium continues to widen, rising to +2.3% last month.

“Positively for sectional title investors and owners, HPI also continues to gather impetus, rising to +4.5% in July, marginally outpaced by the acceleration in freehold HPI, which rose to +5.2% above year-earlier levels. For the year to date, freehold HPI averaged +4.5% compared to +3.8% for sectional title.”

Lightstone data shows that Cape Town continues to outperform other major metro housing markets by a wide margin, rising by +7.4% in July, followed by eThekwini at +3.3% and Tshwane +3%, with Johannesburg HPI of +1.7%. Within Gauteng, HPI in Tshwane saw the region outperform the other two metro housing markets, with house prices rising by +3% in July, outperforming both Ekurhuleni (+2%) and Johannesburg (+1.7%).

Source: Lightstone

Says Dr Golding: “Encouragingly, after stalling for several months, and according to ooba Home Loans, demand from first-time buyers has rebounded, rising from 46.4% of all applications in recent months to 47.6% in June/July 2025. Recent interest rate cuts, subdued inflation and petrol price reductions are all expected to support first-time buyer demand during the remainder of the year.

“Coupled with this, the pricing of home loans continues to grow more competitive, with the average national concession relative to prime easing to -0.75% in July. The Western and Eastern Cape continued to enjoy the most competitively priced loans last month at -0.9 2 % and-0.7 7 % respectively. Ooba Home Loans also reports that over the past three months, pre-qualified applicants continue to enjoy a significantly higher approval rate of 90.2%, compared to 79.8% for applications without pre-qualification.”

For further information visit www.pamgolding.co.za

Posted by The Know - Pam Golding Properties